The 'new stage' of the pandemic: Explaining WNY's winter surge and living with the virus
Buffalo NewsNov 24, 2021
Nov. 24—Depending on which numbers you watch, the Covid-19 pandemic either shows some signs of easing or is growing much worse.
Both things can be true at once, though that doesn't make for the tidiest public health message.
On one hand,
At the same time, while Covid-19 has once again flared across the region — driven in large part by unvaccinated people — hospitalizations have not risen at quite the same pace, said Dr.
For many, this juncture has proven both uneasy and exhausting, particularly after a summer in which much of life returned to "normal" for vaccinated people. But "normal" now and in the immediate future, health experts say, will likely still include some level of ongoing, fluctuating precautions as communities react to Covid-19 surges.
Not even a trio of excellent vaccines provide perfect immunity, they say. And hundreds of thousands of people — including the unvaccinated, the elderly and the immunocompromised — are still vulnerable to Covid-19, as the recent wave in
"People will need to think about their behavior and think about what they're willing to do, based on how much virus is around," Winklestein said. "We're going to have to reach a new sense of normal and figure out: What does it mean to live with the virus?"
Why cases are up
The severity of any pandemic is largely a function of two factors: how susceptible the community is to the disease, and how much they're exposed to it.
While vaccines radically reduce susceptibility, making it far less likely a person will catch Covid-19 or get seriously sick, local exposure to the virus has spiked in recent months, as cold weather drove social gatherings indoors; communities abandoned mask mandates and other mitigation measures; and the more contagious Delta variant became the dominant strain in the
Delta is at least twice as contagious as previous variants, according to the
On the susceptibility side of the equation, meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Western New Yorkers, including most children, have not been immunized yet. Even for vaccinated people, studies show, immunity drops off roughly two to six months after their last shot — a finding that prompted the federal government last week to approve an additional "booster" dose for all adults.
"Neutralizing antibodies do wane over time and this is natural," said Dr.
"We need to remember that we are living through the evolution of Covid-19 science," she added, "including actively learning about its pathology, how to prevent it, and how to treat it."
The 'new stage of the pandemic'
Breakthrough Covid-19 cases are still not the norm, though they've become more common since the spring. As of
For most people, breakthrough infections also are more mild and pose a far smaller risk of serious illness or death. Some people who experience breakthrough infections won't even realize they're sick, experts said.
"A case last year when we had no vaccine means something very different than now when we have a highly effective vaccine," said Dr.
That said, however, even mild cases can cause prolonged health problems in some patients, a phenomenon known as "long Covid." These conditions are not well understood, and it's not clear how many people experience them.
Some populations also are at higher risk of a bad breakthrough case. The
Underlying conditions that burden or weaken the immune system, such as cancer, also up the risk of serious illness. At the
Across the region, more than 400 people were hospitalized with Covid-19 as of
"All the infections now are the Delta variant, which is significantly more infectious than both the original virus and the variants prior to Delta," he said. "If we're on the same trajectory we were a year ago with a disease that's far more infectious, that's a good thing. That tells you the vaccine is doing something."
'No silver bullet'
Importantly, even people who are unlikely to develop a bad case of Covid-19 still contribute to the local prevalence and spread of the disease, which is why officials are urging even healthy, fully vaccinated people to wear masks indoors and get booster shots.
Under current conditions — with no change to vaccination rates or masking behavior — models produced by the
International models from the
"That kind of behavior change has a dramatic effect," Winklestein said. "So if people kind of get the message and say, 'OK, let's be a little more careful now that we're in the Covid season,' or whatever you want to call it, that will help put a cap on this wave we're in now."
Families may also want to take additional precautions during the holidays, based on the high level of local community transmission and their risk of complications, said
If a gathering includes elderly or immunocompromised people, however, the agency encourages precautions such as limiting the size of holiday gatherings, knowing the vaccination status of guests and meeting outdoors or in well-ventilated spaces.
"We have to use multiple nonpharmaceutical interventions," Burstein said. "There is no silver bullet."
That will remain true after the current wave, experts warned. While politicians often talk about returning to "normal," that process will not look like "flipping a light switch," said Hidalgo.
Given the large number of unvaccinated people both in the
It's possible, Weinstein said, that the
Additional booster shots may also be needed to prolong immunity, said
"Over time we will control the virus much, much better through vaccines, increased access to diagnostics to catch cases, new treatments ... and sensible public health measures like masking when needed," he said. "We are really in a remarkable place with remarkable tools to end the pandemic, if we have the will to use them."
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